Also, I'm only making predictions in categories that I feel like I have a real read on. If I'm 100% guessing, there's no point.
Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"
Oscar always likes at least one surprise, and Academy voters skew old. This is my upset of the night.
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables"
Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook"
"Silver Linings" spent a lot of money campaigning, and I think it pays off here (and one other spot, which I'll get to shortly)
David O. Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook"
See? Told you it'd be a short wait. I think the absence of Ben Affleck (and Tarantino. And Kathryn Bigelow) leaves this wide open.
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Seriously, though: how is this not in the Adapted category? It's not like this isn't based on real events. Can someone explain this to me?
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tony Kushner, "Lincoln"
Best Animated Feature
Best Foreign Feature
Best Original Song
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall"
One other note: "Searching for Sugar Man" is the only documentary feature I've heard much about this year...which means it likely won't win. Call it the Banksy Rule.